Matrix Models 1.

The following ideas are drawn from "Theoretical Evolutionary Ecology" by Michael Bulmer.

Let's complicate things in one way, and simplify in another. We're back with one species, and we make the following assumptions:

  • there are two sexes, but only the females are of interest, as in them rests the procreative potential of the species (many mothers = many children; the same is not true for fathers);

  • let nx(t) be the number of females of age x in year t, so x and t are integers, and we can always arrange things so that they're both positive (x of course is positive anyway);

  • the females are assumed to start breeding from age x = 1, and to continue breeding each year of subsequent life up to and including age x = w (so from age x = w+1 onward they drop out of this mathematical model and we'll just assume they retire to the Ozarks);

Recursion Assumptions:
  • let Px = probability that a female of age x survives to age x+1. Px is the fraction of x year olds likely to survive, so that means

    nx+1(t+1) = Px nx(t).

    That is, if we observe nx(t) x year olds in some year t, then in the next year (t+1) only a certain fraction will still be around, not x+1 year olds.

  • Each of the nx(t) females of age x is assumed to annually give birth to a certain number of females, but they're of little interest unless they survive to be 1 year olds, at which point they start breeding. Let fx = average number of females born of x year olds that survive to age 1 (this may be a fraction). Therefore, if we start with nx(t) females of age x in year t, then in the next year (t+1) we assume there will be about fx nx(t) of their daughters of age 1 still around. So the total number of 1 years olds in year t+1 would be

    n1(t+1) = f1 n1(t) + f2 n2(t) + ...
    + fw nw(t)
    .

    This is our final recursion relation (meaning it relates a new value of a variable to some old values). Note that nx+1(t+1) = Px nx(t) starts with x = 1, not x = 0, so we have w recusion relations in all.

Time to get concrete...
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Population Page 15.

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